Although geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty continue to pressure global trade, the world economy still shows strong resilience. Air cargo demand has remained positive this year. However, inflation risks, trade frictions, and shifting energy policies continue to influence the outlook for the DHL air freight industry.
Global Air Cargo Demand Rises as Market Momentum Strengthens
Global air freight demand has grown significantly. According to data shared by DHL in its late-September “Air Freight Market Update” webinar, global air cargo demand increased by about 6% in the first seven months of the year. Moreover, Asia’s regional routes and Asia–Europe lanes drove most of the growth, while Asia–North America routes expanded at a slower pace.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) also signals continued strength. As of August, global air cargo demand had expanded for six consecutive months. Total demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), increased 4.1%, driven largely by a shift of high-value goods from ocean to air freight. Shippers chose air solutions to avoid risks linked to U.S. tariff policies. This uncertainty also redirected part of the cargo flow away from North America, which further boosted demand on Asia–Europe, intra-Asia, Asia–Africa, and Asia–Middle East routes.
Asia, China, and E-Commerce Become the Three Growth Engines
This shift has kept regional demand across Asia particularly strong. Due to stable trade flows and highly connected regional supply chains, air cargo volume in Asia continues to rise. Major trade routes are likely to see sustained growth. Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia stand out as the biggest winners in the global air freight market this year. Their momentum comes from ASEAN’s long-standing position as China’s largest trading partner.
According to China Customs data, China–ASEAN trade reached 5.57 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, rising 9.6% and accounting for 16.6% of China’s total foreign trade.
China–ASEAN cooperation remains one of the most dynamic examples of regional collaboration in Asia. Negotiations for the upgraded China–ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 have now concluded. This progress will inject new energy into bilateral trade and bring greater stability to regional and global supply chains.
Technology and AI-related equipment have become major drivers of air cargo growth. In the first half of 2025, high-tech exports increased 12%, generating over 200,000 tons of air freight demand. Meanwhile, temperature-controlled cargo shipments grew 8%. These categories and routes will likely remain the most active segments for the rest of the year.
Although many expected U.S. tax policy changes—specifically the removal of the USD 800 de minimis threshold—to slow demand, e-commerce continues to act as a major force in the global air freight industry. The shift in U.S. tariffs has pushed sellers and logistics providers to adjust their operations. As a result, more cargo now moves through trans-Pacific B2B2C and B2B channels instead of direct-to-consumer shipping.
Air Cargo Outlook: Demand Stays Strong While Capacity Lags
The strength in air cargo demand contrasts with slow capacity growth. According to the September DHL Air Freight Industry Report, global air freight capacity has remained weak since May 2025. A double-digit decline in freighter capacity has been the primary cause.
Passenger belly capacity offers some relief. However, it still falls short of fully offsetting the decline and cannot significantly lift overall supply. Therefore, average air freight rates remain slightly higher than last year. Spot rates have also begun to rise modestly. As carriers adjust pricing in real time based on demand and supply, rate volatility is likely to increase.
Shippers should prepare for potential rate hikes during the peak season. They should also maintain flexibility, especially for time-sensitive or seasonal cargo.
Tom Crabtree, Managing Director of Transport Research Advisory, points out that increasing disruptions in the ocean freight supply chain may further benefit air cargo. Rapid declines in ocean freight rates—along with resulting capacity cuts and blank sailings—may push more shippers to choose air freight solutions in the coming weeks.
However, the real challenge for the air freight market lies in sustaining this growth amid continuously shifting global trade conditions.
