As global trade recovers and reshapes in 2025, international shipping is once again at the center of intense scrutiny. After several years of rate volatility due to the pandemic, port congestion, and geopolitical instability, the second half of 2025 shows signs of renewed pricing pressure. Understanding the cheapest way to ship to Australia from China and other key routes is crucial for businesses.
July Shipping Price Hikes by Major Carriers
Shipping giants like Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, and CMA CGM have already signaled sharp price increases across key global routes starting July—sparking questions for exporters, freight forwarders, and global supply chain managers alike.
The latest wave of price hikes began with Hapag-Lloyd, announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective July 15, 2025:
- South America East Coast to North America/Mexico: +$500 per container (dry and reefer)
- India Subcontinent to Southern Europe & North Africa: 20ft container base rate jumps from $2,852 → $3,352 (+17.5%)
CMA CGM followed, implementing a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) of $2,400 per 40ft container from Asia to the U.S. starting July 1.
Maersk also raised prices on routes from China to Australia and the Middle East, marking a coordinated rate strategy across regions. Determining how much does it cost to ship to Australia now requires careful evaluation.
Highlighted Rate Increases Across Key Routes
| Carrier | Route | Surcharge Type | New Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapag-Lloyd | India to North Africa | Base Rate | $3,352/20ft |
| CMA CGM | Asia to U.S. | PSS | $2,400/40ft |
| Maersk | China to Australia | PSS | Variable |
These increases reflect not just rising operational costs but also strategic anticipation of Q3 peak demand.
Why Are International Shipping Prices Rising?
- Red Sea Security Concerns: With heightened tensions in the Red Sea, many ships are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding fuel, time, and risk premiums.
- Port Congestion: Major ports like Los Angeles and Rotterdam remain heavily congested, increasing turnaround times and reducing available shipping slots.
- Pre-Peak Season Stocking: Retailers, particularly eCommerce giants like Amazon, are ramping up inventory ahead of the holiday shopping season.
Red Sea Crisis and Its Ripple Effect on Routes
Rerouting around Africa significantly increases transit costs and days in transit:
- Up to 15 additional days per voyage
- Increased fuel consumption
- Lower shipping availability, tightening supply
This alone can raise rates by 10–15% in affected lanes.
Port Congestion in the U.S. and Europe
Shipping bottlenecks at ports like LA, Long Beach, Rotterdam, and Antwerp are due to:
- Increased inbound volumes
- Labor shortages
- Inland rail/container shortages
Waiting times can exceed 5–7 days, adding to storage and demurrage costs.
Mixed Market Signals: Dry Bulk Index Down, Demand Stable
While the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) recently dipped, indicating potential rate softening in bulk shipping, container traffic remains robust—especially in retail sectors.
Result: Even with lower bulk rates, container freight continues to experience upward pressure due to strong demand and route instability.
The Role of eCommerce in Peak Season Freight Demand
Global eCommerce platforms begin stocking for Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas as early as July. This leads to:
- Sudden spikes in container demand
- Increased competition for space
- Advance bookings at premium rates
Expect steady demand from July through October.
2025 Forecast: What to Expect for July and Beyond
Experts predict that shipping prices in July will remain high but stable:
- Upside: Carrier confidence and booking data suggest ongoing strong demand.
- Downside: Price-sensitive shippers may reduce volumes temporarily.
Most forecasts show “high and flat” pricing unless new geopolitical issues arise.
Will Prices Continue to Rise or Stabilize in July?
While major rate hikes are already announced, a further surge is unlikely—mainly because:
- Some shippers are holding off due to high costs
- Warehouses are still catching up from earlier imports
Still, expect little room for price drops unless demand collapses—making this a key month for freight negotiations.
Strategic Advice for Exporters and Freight Forwarders
- Plan Shipments Early: Avoid last-minute bookings when space is limited and prices spike.
- Diversify Shipping Methods: Use a mix of sea, air, and rail where feasible.
- Communicate with Agents: Stay updated with multiple freight forwarders.
- Build Rate Clauses into Contracts: Account for volatility.
- Use Market Tools: Platforms like Freightos or Xeneta provide rate tracking.
Comparing Air Freight and Rail as Alternatives
While sea freight remains the backbone of international shipping, alternatives are gaining traction—especially when time or stability is a factor.
Air Freight
- Pros: Fast (3–7 days), less impacted by sea route disruptions.
- Cons: Expensive, not suitable for heavy or bulky goods.
Rail Freight (e.g., China–Europe Railway)
- Pros: Balanced cost and speed (15–25 days), stable schedules.
- Cons: Limited network coverage, customs complexity.
For high-value, time-sensitive goods, air freight may justify the cost. For mid-size, cross-continental shipments, rail is a strong contender.
How to Stay Ahead in a Volatile Shipping Market
To manage freight costs and avoid disruption, businesses should:
- Use Real-Time Rate Tools: Platforms like Freightos, Shifl, and Flexport show market rates and lane capacity. Use a shipping calculator to estimate costs.
- Build Strong Carrier Relationships: Having multiple agents or NVOCC partners ensures flexibility.
- Scenario Plan: Prepare for port strikes, political issues, or fuel spikes by identifying alternative routes or carriers.
Regional Outlook: U.S., Europe, Middle East, Asia
United States
- Strong demand from Asia.
- Rates expected to remain firm due to import activity ahead of Q4.
Europe
- Port delays in Rotterdam and Antwerp continue.
- Slight weakening in demand may moderate prices.
Middle East
- Increased volumes via UAE due to Red Sea detours.
- Growing intra-Gulf trade driving rate pressure.
Asia
- Export-heavy environment.
- China to Australia and India to Europe routes under sustained pricing pressure. Finding the cheapest way to ship to Australia from China remains a priority.
Impact on SMEs and B2B Cross-Border Commerce
Smaller exporters and B2B platforms face the toughest challenge:
- Higher per-unit shipping costs erode margins.
- Longer lead times disrupt inventory planning.
- Customers may delay or cancel orders due to delivery uncertainty.
To mitigate, SMEs should:
- Share containers (LCL) with trusted freight forwarders.
- Offer bundled or prepaid shipping options.
- Consider third-party logistics (3PL) partnerships near end markets.
Frequently Asked Questions About International Shipping Prices
Q1: Why are container shipping prices so high in 2025?
A: Ongoing geopolitical disruptions, high demand, and limited vessel space are primary drivers.
Q2: Will prices drop after the peak season?
A: Prices may soften slightly post-Q4, but core rates will likely remain elevated due to long-term structural costs.
Q3: How do I lock in better rates?
A: Negotiate long-term contracts with freight forwarders and avoid one-time spot bookings during peak periods.
Q4: What’s the best route alternative to the Red Sea?
A: Many carriers now use the Cape of Good Hope, but air and rail are also viable alternatives for urgent shipments.
Q5: How do I get real-time rate updates?
A: Use shipping intelligence platforms like Xeneta, Freightos, or CargoWise.
Q6: Are insurance costs rising too?
A: Yes, especially in high-risk routes like the Red Sea. Consider comprehensive cargo insurance to offset unexpected losses.
Conclusion: Prepare Now or Pay Later
As July 2025 unfolds, it’s clear the international shipping market is entering a high-cost, high-demand phase. While rates may not skyrocket, they’re unlikely to fall—especially on high-volume or volatile routes. Using a shipping calculator can help you anticipate these costs.
Companies that plan early, diversify logistics partners, and monitor shipping conditions will navigate this phase more profitably. Those who delay may find themselves outbid for space, forced into premium options, or worse—facing delivery failures. Businesses shipping from China will need to be very aware of how much does it cost to ship to Australia and other key destinations.
Proactive strategy beats reactive cost-cutting. The time to act is now.
